Re: coping with environmental variability

Tom Hodges (thodges@beta.tricity.wsu.edu)
Thu, 27 Apr 1995 16:50:33 -0700 (PDT)

One approach for crops with "good" simulation models is to run the
model over a long string of years of weather data, then perturb (sic)
the weather data and run again. This gives an estimate of yield
potential, irrigation and fertilizer needs, etc. under previous
weather and under ?predicted? weather. Of course you need to have
a method for picking planting dates. The value of the estimates is
dependent on the stability of the model under these conditons.

Tom
Tom Hodges, Cropping Systems Modeler
USDA-ARS email: thodges@beta.tricity.wsu.edu
Rt. 2, Box 2953-A voice: 509-786-9207
Prosser, WA 99350 USA Fax: 509-786-9370
== ## Rent this space ## ==
If this represents anything, it is only my opinion.

> Ann Clark <ACLARK@CROP.UOGUELPH.CA> wrote:
> >
> > Seems some chaps have concluded that one of the unexpected changes
> > accompanying what is increasingly looking like "global warming" is
> > increased variability in the starting/ending of growing seasons.
> > Untimely startings and endings would have significant repercussions
> > for both grain crop (annual) and pasture/hay (perennial) systems.
> >
> > I'd be interested to know if anyone has done research on "coping with
> > variability" - whether in annual or perennial systems. I'm not
> > talking now about managing for predictable seasonal problems - e.g.
> > midseason drought - but rather, coping with unpredictable problems -
> > like a season that starts a month late or ends 2 weeks early. I'd be
> > particularly interested in sensitivity/risk analyses, from both
> > biological/agronomic and profitablity perspectives.