Howdy, all--
Thought this might interest some of you. Please note the embargo on this
release until 6 p.m. tonight (EDST).
peace
mish
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>NEWS FROM THE WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE
>
> From the Office of the Chairman
>Worldwatch Issue Alert
>Alert 2000 - 4
>Embargoed for Release
>6 PM, June 21, 2000
>
>
>POPULATION GROWTH SENTENCING MILLIONS
>TO HYDROLOGICAL POVERTY
>
>Lester R. Brown
>
>
> At a time when drought in the United States, Ethiopia, and
> Afghanistan is in
>the news, it is easy to forget that far more serious water shortages are
>emerging as the demand for water in many countries simply outruns the supply.
>Water tables are now falling on every continent. Literally scores of countries
>are facing water shortages as water tables fall and wells go dry.
> We live in a water-challenged world, one that is becoming more so
> each year
>as 80 million additional people stake their claims to the Earth's water
>resources. Unfortunately, nearly all the projected 3 billion people to be
>added
>over the next half century will be born in countries that are already
>experiencing water shortages. Even now many in these countries lack enough
>water
>to drink, to satisfy hygienic needs, and to produce food.
> By 2050, India is projected to add 519 million people and China 211
> million.
>Pakistan is projected to add nearly 200 million, going from 151 million at
>present to 348 million. Egypt, Iran, and Mexico are slated to increase their
>populations by more than half by 2050. In these and other water-short
>countries,
>population growth is sentencing millions of people to hydrological poverty, a
>local form of poverty that is difficult to escape.
> Even with today's 6 billion people, the world has a huge water deficit.
>Using data on overpumping for China, India, Saudi Arabia, North Africa,
>and the
>United States, Sandra Postel, author of Pillar of Sand: Can the Irrigation
>Miracle Last?, calculates the annual depletion of aquifers at 160 billion
>cubic
>meters or 160 billion tons. Using the rule of thumb that it takes 1,000
>tons of
>water to produce 1 ton of grain, this 160-billion-ton water deficit is
>equal to
>160 million tons of grain or one half the U.S. grain harvest.
> At average world grain consumption of just over 300 kilograms or one
> third
>of a ton per person per year, this would feed 480 million people. Stated
>otherwise, 480 million of the world's 6 billion people are being fed with
>grain
>produced with the unsustainable use of water.
> Overpumping is a new phenomenon, one largely confined to the last half
>century. Only since the development of powerful diesel and electrically driven
>pumps have we had the capacity to pull water out of aquifers faster than it is
>replaced by precipitation.
> Some 70 percent of the water consumed worldwide, including both that
>diverted from rivers and that pumped from underground, is used for irrigation,
>while some 20 percent is used by industry, and 10 percent for residential
>purposes. In the increasingly intense competition for water among sectors,
>agriculture almost always loses. The 1,000 tons of water used in India to
>produce 1 ton of wheat worth perhaps $200 can also be used to expand
>industrial
>output by easily $10,000, or 50 times as much. This ratio helps explain
>why, in
>the American West, the sale of irrigation water rights by farmers to cities is
>an almost daily occurrence.
> In addition to population growth, urbanization and industrialization also
>expand the demand for water. As developing country villagers, traditionally
>reliant on the village well, move to urban high-rise apartment buildings with
>indoor plumbing, their residential water use can easily triple.
>Industrialization takes even more water than urbanization.
> Rising affluence in itself generates additional demand for water. As
> people
>move up the food chain, consuming more beef, pork, poultry, eggs, and dairy
>products, they use more grain. A U.S. diet rich in livestock products requires
>800 kilograms of grain per person a year, whereas diets in India,
>dominated by a
>starchy food staple such as rice, typically need only 200
>kilograms. Using four
>times as much grain per person means using four times as much water.
> Once a localized phenomenon, water scarcity is now crossing national
> borders
>via the international grain trade. The world's fastest growing grain import
>market is North Africa and the Middle East, an area that includes Morocco,
>Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and the Middle East through Iran. Virtually
>every country in this region is simultaneously experiencing water
>shortages and
>rapid population growth.
> As the demand for water in the region's cities and industries
> increases, it
>is typically satisfied by diverting water from irrigation. The loss in food
>production capacity is then offset by importing grain from abroad. Since 1 ton
>of grain represents 1,000 tons of water, this becomes the most efficient
>way to
>import water.
> Last year, Iran imported 7 million tons of wheat, eclipsing Japan to
> become
>the world's leading wheat importer. This year, Egypt is also projected to move
>ahead of Japan. Iran and Egypt have nearly 70 million people each. Both
>populations are increasing by more than a million a year and both are pressing
>against the limits of their water supplies.
> The water required to produce the grain and other foodstuffs imported
> into
>North Africa and the Middle East last year was roughly equal to the annual
>flow
>of the Nile River. Stated otherwise, the fast-growing water deficit of this
>region is equal to another Nile flowing into the region in the form of
>imported
>grain.
> It is now often said that future wars in the region will more likely be
>fought over water than oil. Perhaps, but given the difficulty in winning a
>water
>war, the competition for water seems more likely to take place in world grain
>markets. The countries that will "win" in this competition will be those that
>are financially strongest, not those that are militarily strongest.
> The world water deficit grows larger with each year, making it
> potentially
>more difficult to manage. If we decided abruptly to stabilize water tables
>everywhere by simply pumping less water, the world grain harvest would fall by
>some 160 million tons, or 8 percent, and grain prices would go off the top of
>the chart. If the deficit continues to widen, the eventual adjustment will be
>even greater.
> Unless governments in water-short countries act quickly to stabilize
>population and to raise water productivity, their water shortages may soon
>become food shortages. The risk is that the growing number of water-short
>countries, including population giants China and India, with rising grain
>import
>needs will overwhelm the exportable supply in food surplus countries, such as
>the United States, Canada, and Australia. This in turn could destabilize world
>grain markets.
> Another risk of delay in dealing with the deficit is that some
> low-income,
>water-short countries will not be able to afford to import needed grain,
>trapping millions of their people in hydrological poverty, thirsty and hungry,
>unable to escape.
> Although there are still some opportunities for developing new water
>resources, restoring the balance between water use and the sustainable supply
>will depend primarily on demand-side initiatives, such as stabilizing
>population
>and raising water productivity.
> Governments can no longer separate population policy from the supply of
>water. And just as the world turned to raising land productivity a half
>century
>ago when the frontiers of agricultural settlement disappeared, so it must now
>turn to raising water productivity. The first step toward this goal is to
>eliminate the water subsidies that foster inefficiency. The second step is to
>raise the price of water to reflect its cost. Shifting to more water-efficient
>technologies, more water-efficient crops, and more water-efficient forms of
>animal protein offer a huge potential for raising water productivity. These
>shifts will move faster if the price of water more closely reflects its
>value.
>
>Copyright 2000 Worldwatch Institute
>
>For additional data and information, see www.worldwatch.org/chairman/
>
>CONTACT: Reah Janise Kauffman
>Worldwatch Institute
>1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW
>Washington, DC 20036-1904
>PHONE: (202) 452-1992 x 514
>FAX: (202) 296-7365
>EMAIL: rjkauffman@worldwatch.org
>
>< end >
>
>
>
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