I'll start with this caveat. I'm neither a medical doctor, nor an epidemiologist
(in human medicine, anyway). I'm a plant pathologist, with a background in soil
microbial ecology.
That depends on the disease! Brucellosis is not as readily spread or as easy to
detect as some other diseases (such as Influenza, small pox, or chicken pox), and
has a long incubation period (30 days to 5 months as opposed to 4-10 days for the
viral illnesses listed above).
Brucellosis epidemics would be difficult to track, while influenza, chicken pox,
and measles epidemics are relatively easy to track. All these diseases (except
brucellosis) have external symptomology (i.e. skin lesions) while brucellosis
yields variable and generalized symptoms (fatigue, fever, intestinal maladies)
common to many enteric pathogens. And unless the patient is specifically tested
for Brucella species the bug many go undetected. Since Brucella infection is not
as common as Salmonella infection, the treatment for Salmonella may be used (and
may be effective, I'm not a medical doctor, but I do know a little about
food-borne diseases). Further, the doctor may ask what they have eaten for the
past few days, and conclude that the rare hamburger the patient had for dinner
last night (not the glass of raw milk the patient had three months ago) is the
cause of the intestinal malady and fever.
Also, one diseased person (one "private tragedy," to continue the discussion)
does not constitute an epidemic. At least three infected persons (I believe) are
required for "Public health emergencies." I'm not positive about the numbers,
but there is no way to determine the source of contamination from just one
infected person (unless the pathogen has been isolated, and is highly unique, as
many Brucella species are.)
John Lozier wrote:
> Hi, Loren Muldowney said
>
> Bottom line, if I get brucellosis and die, as a result of stubbornly
> exercising my own judgement, then I'll be dead. This does not
> constitute a public health emergency. So write "it seems fair to me" on
> my tombstone. It is only a private tragedy.
>
> This is an important point, but controversial. Loren is saying that a few
> "private tragedies," or even a lot of them, do not add up to a "public
> health emergencies." I'd say the debate would be, how many private
> tragedies does it take?
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