I still don't see how you can reach such a strong, definite conclusion.
Joel's original concern might also be reason to prohibit planting of ordinary corn -- or other relatives that might cross-pollinate with teosinte or infect its genome via viruses.
Carried to this extreme, we'd be saying that these farmers are to be denied superior varieties because they live in the center of origin of the crop!
If concerns about terminator damage to wild populations is valid, this is a great time to voice the concern. Already, the corporate/government lab folks are working out schemes to accomplish the same end without this risk. Is this so different from Warner Records trying to find a way to keep someone from copying their CDs? At least, in the seed industry, there is still some competition for markets (whereas music is intrinsically monopolistic (that is partly why most "classical" music CDs are so much cheaper than todays pop/rock hits -- Beethoven isn't copyrighted).
I'm happy to see CGIAR and several other research organizations declare their intention to shun terminator-type technologies. Still, if this technology is ever introduced, its ability to stem leakage of profits to seed-savers could conceivably result in lower seed prices. Those not using the technology must write a faster R&D cost recovery into their products because their customers need not return for next year's seed. Sure, that is a simple-minded theory -- but it isn't economically implausible.
Just as their are niches for extremely-efficient -- but very high-priced -- refrigerators as well as cheap ones that cost a lot to run, there will also be niches for savable seed and single-use seed. Transparent labelling is necessary, of course, so nobody gets stung with "bargain" seed that just turns out to have sterile offspring. If looks like there will be choice, at least, given the CGIAR commitment. Even if Monsanto goes into terminator in a big way, I'll bet other big seed suppliers stick to the historical/conventional path on seed supply. In my view, they can coexist in the market.
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