re: Re: Crystal Ball

craig.harris@ssc.msu.edu
Wed, 3 Jan 96 10:43:15 EST

on tue 2 jan 96 ann clark <ACLARK@CROP.UOGUELPH.CA> replied to
BJWilson@gnn.com (Bob Wilson):
| . . . So, if we take as a premise that the weather becomes increasingly
variable in agricultural growing regions - not 50 years in the future, but
NOW - how will this influence:
| > b) the relative profitability of low-input (e.g. less to lose in the
event of crop failure) vs. resource-dependent agriculture?

there is some literature out there on this, but i'm not sure that it is
conclusive . . . it seems to me that it may be necessary to separate the three
components of weather -- precipitation, temperature, and sunshine -- and to
talk about how each of them might become more variable and then what effect
that increased variability would have . . . the effect would probably vary
significantly by commodity (e.g., asparagus has to have sunshine on march 23rd
or they fail, whereas rutabagas will grow no matter what happens) . . . it
would also be useful to separate the direct effects of weather on plant
metabolism from the indirect effects of weather on pests . . .
all that complexity aside, the literature i have seen pertains mostly to
drought conditions, and shows that organic cash grains suffer less from
drought than do conventionally produced cash grains . . .
i would be interested in knowing of findings that pertain to this question for
other weather variations (e.g., excess moisture, low sunshine) and other
commodities

craig k harris
dept of sociology michigan state university east lansing michigan
48824-1111
tel: 517-355-5048 fax: 517-432-2856